Outstanding Drama Series
1. Lost
2. Mad Men
3. Breaking Bad
4. Dexter
5. The Good Wife
6. Damages
Alternatives: Big Love, House, Grey's Anatomy, Treme, Justified, Parenthood
Commentary: While Big Love or House could slip in and steal the 6th spot, I think that this is going to be the field, with anyone's game going for the top prize.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
1. Jon Hamm "Mad Men"
2. Bryan Cranston "Breaking Bad"
3. Michael C. Hall "Dexter"
4. Hugh Laurie "House, M.D."
5. Simon Baker "The Mentalist"
6. Bill Paxton "Big Love"
Alternatives: Peter Krause "Parenthood", Clarke Peters "Treme", Timothy Olyphant "Justified", Kiefer Sutherland.
Commentary: Went with Bill Paxton in the last spot, but could easily see Olyphant, Sutherland or Krause getting in instead, the other five are set in stone.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
1. Julianna Marguiles "The Good Wife"
2. Glenn Close "Damages"
3. Kyra Sedgwick "The Closer"
4. January Jones "Mad Men"
5. Mariska Hargitay "Law & Order: SVU"
6. Sally Field "Brothers & Sisters"
Alternatives: Anna Gunn "Breaking Bad", Katey Segal "Sons of Anarchy", Holly Hunter "Saving Grace", Melissa Leo "Treme", Anna Paquin "True Blood"
Commentary: This is a tough category, and I'm going to play it safe, with more conventional choices, Field and Hargitay instead of Paquin, Leo, Gunn, or Segal. Also watch out for January Jones, who, despite her incredible talent could miss the cut for Hunter's final shot.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
1. Aaron Paul "Breaking Bad"
2. Michael Emerson "Lost"
3. Martin Short "Damages"
4. Terry O'Quinn "Lost"
5. John Slattery "Mad Men"
6. John Goodman "Treme"
Alternatives: Campbell Scott "Damages", Dean Norris "Breaking Bad", Chris Noth "The Good Wife", Andre Braughter "Men of a Certain Age"
Commentary: I think that five of these are locked in, its the sixth spot that I'm concerned about. John Goodman is in, in my opinion, but don't count out Campbell Scott, Dean Norris, or Chris Noth.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
1. Elisabeth Moss "Mad Men"
2. Rose Bryne "Damages"
3. Sandra Oh "Grey's Anatomy"
4. Chandra Wilson "Grey's Anatomy"
5. Chloe Sevigny "Big Love"
6. Christina Hendricks "Mad Men"
Alternatives: Christine Baranski "The Good Wife", Khandi Alexander "Treme", S. Epatha Merkerson "Law & Order", Ginnifer Goodwin "Big Love", Monica Potter "Parenthood"
Commentary: Like the last one, I think there are five in. I wish that Christina Hendricks were a lock, but there are three or four possible replacements. The great honor would be is S. Epatha Merkerson finally got the Emmy love she deserves.
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series
1. Jack Bender "Lost - The End"
2. Charles McDougall "The Good Wife - Pilot"
3. Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - Shut the Door. Have a Seat"
4. Agnieszka Holland "Treme - Do You Know What it Means?/Pilot"
5. Thomas Schlamme "Parenthood - Pilot"
Alternatives: Katie Jacobs "House - Broken Parts 1&2", Lesli Linka Glatter "Mad Men - Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency"
Commentary: Lost, The Good Wife, and at least one Mad Men episodes are in. The last two spots are tricky. I went with the two Pilots for Treme and Parenthood, but watch out for House's Broken Parts episode to slip in.
Oustanding Writing in a Drama Series
1. Carlton Cuse & Damon Lindelof "Lost - The End"
2. Matthew Weiner, Erin Levy "Mad Men - Shut the Door. Have a Seat"
3. David Simon, Eric Overmyer " Treme - Do You Know What It Means/Pilot"
4. Robin Veith, Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency"
5. Robert King, Michelle King "The Good Wife - Pilot"
Alternates: Russel Friend, Garrett Lerner, David Foster, David Shore "House - Broken Parts 1&2", Brett Johnson, Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - The Grown Ups", Marti Noxon, Cathryn Humphris & Matthew Weiner "Mad Men - The Gypsy & The Hobo"
Commentary: This one is tricky, as Mad Men could get up to four nominations. I split it up this year though because of the talent of Treme and The Good Wife, as well as the finale of Lost.
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