Wednesday, January 26, 2011

State of the Race: Analysis of the Nominees and Initial Winner Predictions

Best Picture
My Predictions - 10/10!
While some categories for me were miserable failures, I was thrilled that I got all ten right, and honestly not that surprised. I figured Winter's Bone had enough passionate supporters to out match The Town's general "it was a good movie" vibe. Plus, with 10 nominees, its going to be a good guess that the PGA will not match up 10 for 10. The question is now, who wins? The Social Network was going full steam ahead, but with the PGA loss, and The King's Speech leading the nomination total (including much deeper nominations than expected), this race is going towards a head on collison, so my prediction right now is a tie The Social Network and The King's Speech. I'll be less indecisive once the other guilds reign in.

Best Director
My Predictions - 4/5
Poor Christopher Nolan, he just can't seem to catch a break. Well, like Picture, I think this is between Hooper and Fincher. However, even if TKS wins picture, I still think that Fincher will take home director. This weekend, the DGA's will help sort out this race a lot more.

Best Actor
My Predictions - 4/5
I am thrilled that Bardem got in, even if that means that my predictions were off. While his inclusion is nice, I still think that Firth has this one in the bag. This Sunday the SAG awards will tell us more, but I really can't see any of the other nominees knocking him off at this point.

Best Actress
My Predictions - 4/5
Well, my Hailee Steinfeld category swap didn't come true, but I am thrilled. She still got a supporting nod, and the wonderful Michelle Williams got in as well, a win-win. In terms of winning, I'm starting to think that Portman may not be as safe as we think. Black Swan was predicted to get many more nods than the five that it did get. The SAGs will tell us more, but maybe Annette Bening isn't out of this race yet.

Best Supporting Actor
My Predictions - 4/5
I'm bummed that Jeremy Renner got in, and the wonderful Andrew Garfield was snubbed, but I could not be happier for John Hawkes. All of that seems to be null and void however, as, unless something crazy happens, Bale has this one in the bag.

Best Supporting Actress
My Predictions - 4/5
No offense to Mila Kunis, who did prove herself as a legitimate actress this year in Black Swan, but I am ecstatic about Jacki Weaver's nomination. For me, this was the most ideal line up, so no complaints from this corner. I think Leo is still the frontrunner, but the BAFTA snub hurts, and they put Steinfeld in lead, so category confusion could cause her to lose as well. I'm starting to think that Adams or Carter could come in and steal this one away from Leo or Steinfeld.

Best Adapted Screenplay
My Predictions - 5/5!
No surprises here. If Aaron Sorkin doesn't win, I will probably throw something at my TV.

Best Original Screenplay
My Predictions - 4/5
Kind of surprised that Black Swan didn't pop up, but its lack of nominations across the board shows that it is not as popular as we thought. Mike Leigh's inclusions in its place though was fantastic for an underrated movie. I think The King's Speech is the favorite to win despite the WGA disqualification. Watch out for The Kid's Are All Right and The Fighter though.

Best Animated Feature
My Predictions - 3/3!
I'm so happy that I got The Illusionist prediction right! TS3 all the way.

Best Documentary Feature
My Predictions - 4/5
I'm still bummed that Waiting for 'Superman' was snubbed. Now I think Inside Job is the frontrunner or the loved Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Foreign Language Film
My Predictions - 4/5
Hey considering I had no idea, I think this is pretty damn good. I have no idea for the win, I'll have to do some research

Best Art Direction
My Predictions - 4/5
Kind of bummed for Shutter Island, but Harry Potter in its place is just fine in my book. I think TKS or Inception will take this one.

Best Cinematography
My Predictions - 5/5!
ASC nods across the board. This one will be interesting. My hope is that this is the award that True Grit takes for Roger Deakins, so I am going to stick with it until someone tells me something differently.

Best Costume Design
My Predictions - 4/5
I think most people thought Black Swan was in, and then out of nowhere I Am Love comes out of nowhere to take a nod. However, I am not mad about this, as that amazing movie deserved at least one nod, although an actress nod for Swinton would have been better, I'll take this. The Academy loves period pieces, so look for TKS to win this one.

Best Film Editing
My Predictions - 4/5
I liked 127 Hours, but Inception should have gotten this nod. I still think that the zippy Social Network will take this one, no matter how BP shakes down.

Best Makeup
My Predictions - 1/3...Ouch!
This category gets wierder every year. To be honest, I have no idea who is going to win this. They usually go with the best film out of the bunch, but I think The Wolfman could win this one instead of the other two. Happy The Way Back got at least something!

Best Original Song
My Predictions - 3/4
Techinally I would have been 3/5, but whatever. Burlesque may have been campy, but Diane Warren's You Haven't Seen the Last of Me deserved a nod over anything from the mess that was Country Strong. I'm going with Alan Menken or Newman, maybe leaning towards Newman simply because of Toy Story 3's popularity.

Best Original Score
My Predictions - 4/5
Pretty good nominations, especially for John Powell in HTTYD. I was thinking that Hans Zimmer would (and should) win this one. Then I thought that Reznor and Ross for TSN. But I think that TKS will win this one for Alexandre Desplat.

Best Sound Editing
My Predictions - 4/5
The Unstoppable nomination is interesting, but not a bad one for a decent action movie with some great sound effects. I think that Inception has this one in the bag.

Best Sound Mixing
My Predictions - 3/5
The King's Speech nod is truly amazing, and shows its depth with the Academy. I still think Inception will take this one.

Best Visual Effects
My Predictions - 4/5
I liked Hereafter, but the TRON team was robbed. Inception all the way.

Overall I was 86/105 which is about 82%. Next year I will be braver and acutally attempt the three short film categories, but I am thrilled with 82%, and hope to only improve.

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