State of the Race: First Predictions - Best Picture

Predicted Nominees
Contagion 
The Descendants 
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close 
Hugo Cabaret 
The Ides of March
J. Edgar
The Tree of Life
War Horse
We Bought a Zoo
Young Adult 

Other Possibilities - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Moneyball, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, A Dangerous Method, Twixt Now and Sunrise, Win Win, The Skin I Live In, The Help, and tons of others

Commentary - So here it goes, the first State of the Race. Now that the dust has settled on an exciting 2010 Oscar season, it is time to start looking ahead. So here my first predictions of the year. (I will do other categories as well within the next week or so, so stay tuned). First, The Tree of Life, Terrence Malick's long-delayed film still has the potential to be a huge Oscar contender, if only it would be released. Next I am going with Jason Reitman and Diablo Cody's re-team in Young Adult, which stars Patrick Wilson and Charlize Theron, and is sure to be a hit. Some big time past Best Directors have projects including Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Steven Soderbergh (Contagion), Clint Eastwood (J. Edgar) and Martin Scorsese (Hugo Cabaret), and all of them have bait attached to it, if they can come through on their promising premises (say that five times fast). George Clooney returns with The Ides of March, and could also get an acting nod for Alexander Payne's The Descendants, both looking baity. Stephen Daldry's movies, good (The Hours) or bad (The Reader) have been popular with the Academy, so even if Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is half decent, it will most likely get nominated. Finally, I am going with Cameron Crowe's We Bought a Zoo, hoping that it is more like Almost Famous, and less like Elizabethtown.