State of the Race - First Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Well, it is that time again. While the 84th Oscar ceremony is just behind us, it is time to start looking ahead to next year's ceremony, and with some of the titles that are popping up, it looks to be an exciting and fierce Oscar year. Let's start looking at some of the early contenders in the major categories. First Best Supporting Actress

First Predictions:

Amy Adams "The Master"
Sally Field "Lincoln"
Anne Hathaway "Les Miserables"
Vanessa Redgrave "Song for Marion"
Kerry Washington "Django Unchained"

Other Possibilities - Kelly MacDonald "Anna Karenina" Samantha Bark "Les Miserables", Olivia Williams "Hyde Park on the Hudson", Annette Bening "Imogene", Olivia Colman "Hyde Park on the Hudson", Nicole Kidman "The Paperboy", Kirsten Dunst "Red Light Winter", Kirsten Dunst "On the Road", Isla Fisher "The Great Gatsby", Quvenzhane Wallis "Beasts Of The Southern Wild", Halle Berry "Cloud Atlas", Carey Mulligan "Inside Llewyn Davis", Jessica Chastain "Untitled Terrence Malick Project", Olga Kurylenko "Untitled Terrence Malick Project", Elisabeth Moss "On the Road",  Penelope Cruz "Nero Fiddled", Frances McDormand "Moonrise Kingdom", Tilda Swinton "Moonrise Kingdom", Maggie Smith "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel", Jessica Chastain "Zero Hour Thirty", Jessica Chastain "The Wettest County", Kate Hudson "The Reluctant Fundamentalist", Helena Bonham Carter "Great Expectations", Helena Bonham Carter "Les Miserables", Whitney Houston "Sparkle", Emma Thompson "Effie", Susan Sarandon "The Company You Keep", Julie Christie "The Company You Keep", Maggie Gyllenhaal "Won't Back Down", Rose Byrne "A Place Beyond the Pines", Eva Mendes "A Place Beyond the Pines"

Commentary - As you can tell, there are simply too many names to talk about all of them. So I will try to stick to the basics. As always, predicting this early is tricky, and based on a game of logic and Oscar bait-looking projects. Probably the baitiest project of them all this year is Spielberg's highly-awaited adaptation of Doris Kearns Goodwin's incredible historical work Team of Rivals. Renamed Lincoln (not as good of a title if you ask me), has tons of incredible talent, but as Lincoln's wife Mary Todd, Sally Field looks to be the biggest of the parts, and could easily return to the Oscar race (maybe in lead depending on the size of the role). Another movie getting a ton of Oscar buzz is Paul Thomas Anderson's 1950's set film The Master. Once again, it could go either lead or supporting, but my guess is that Amy Adams is the frontrunner as of this moment. She seems to excel in everything she does, and has already received three Oscar nominations. Vanessa Redgrave seemed like a lock last years until the buzz for Coriolanus completely died. This year she is back with another baity project, once again being pushed Weinstein entitled Song for Marion. I know the phrase "Once bitten, twice shy", could apply here, but maybe this time around she will have better luck. In Tom Hooper's Les Miserables, there are two or three really baity supporting female roles, including Helena Bonham Carter, newcomer Samantha Bates, and Anne Hathaway. Playing it safe, I am only picking one, Hathaway, who will also have The Dark Knight Rises this year, and is a young, exciting talent that seems destined for more and more Oscar recognition. The final slot is going to a personal pick of mine. If Django Unchained is as good as most Tarantino projects, then it is going to be an awesome movie. Kerry Washington is one of the best actresses working today, and should have received a nod with Regina King back in 2004 for Ray. If the role is big and flashy enough, I say she earns her first Academy Award nomination. Also watch out for Annette Bening, Olivia Colman/Williams, Samantha Bark, Carey Mulligan, Kelly Macdonald, Nicole Kidman, Quvenzhane Wallis, Jessica Chastain, France McDormand, and Tilda Swinton, as early spoilers.