Sunday, October 25, 2015

The Oscar Narrative: First Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actor and Actress in a Drama

Best Actress in a Drama
Cate Blanchett "Carol"
Brie Larson "Room"
Jennifer Lawrence "Joy"
Carey Mulligan "Suffragette"
Saoirse Ronan "Brooklyn"

Other Contenders - Emily Blunt "Sicario", Angelina Jolie "By the Sea", Cate Blanchett "Truth", Charlize Theron "Mad Max: Fury Road", Julia Roberts "Secrets in Their Eyes" Nicole Kidman "Secrets in Their Eyes", Julianne Moore "Freeheld", Regina Case "The Second Mother", Marion Cotillard "Macbeth", Juliette Binoche "Clouds of Sils Maria", Helen Mirren "Woman in Gold", Alicia Vikander "Testament of Youth", Alicia Vikander "Ex Machina", Carey Mulligan "Far From the Maddening Crowd", Dakota Johnson "Fifty Shades of Grey", Shailene Woodley "Insurgent", Jennifer Lawrence "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II", Blake Lively "The Age of Adaline", Cara Delevingne "Paper Towns", Rachel McAdams "Southpaw", Kate Mara "Captive", Daisy Ridley "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens"

Commentary - This looks like another year where Drama contenders are the most Oscar friendly, so it was relatively easy to move my five current Oscar predictions over to this category. But as we know, the Globes and the Oscars, while they agree on a lot, sometimes diverge. Especially when big stars are involved. So names like Angelina Jolie, Charlize Theron, Emily Blunt, Julia Roberts, and Nicole Kidman are involved do not discount them. Even their projects end up being lesser contenders, remember that sometimes it is the name on the ballot that matters more than anything else. There are also the foreign contenders like Marion Cotillard, Helen Mirren, and Juliette Binoche. This is the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and sometimes they reward their own. But I will stick with these five for now.

Best Actor in a Drama
Johnny Depp "Black Mass"
Leonardo DiCaprio "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender "Steve Jobs"
Tom Hanks "Bridge of Spies"
Eddie Redmayne "The Danish Girl"

Other Contenders - Will Smith "Concussion", Michael Caine "Youth", Ian McKellen "Mr. Holmes", Jake Gyllenhaal "Southpaw", John Cusack "Love & Mercy", Tom Hardy "Mad Max: Fury Road", Tom Hardy "Legend", Joseph Gordon-Levitt "The Walk", Richard Gere "Time Out of Mind", O'Shea Jackson Jr. "Straight Outta Compton", Michael Fassbender "Macbeth", Chris Hemsworth "In the Heart of the Sea", Geza Rohrig "Son of Saul", Christopher Abbott "James White", Chiwetel Ejiofor "Secrets in Their Eyes", Tobey Maguire "Pawn Sacrifice", Josh Brolin "Sicario", Andrew Garfield "99 Homes", Jesse Eisenberg "The End of the Tour", Chris Pratt "Jurassic World", Jamie Dornan "Fifty Shades of Grey", Vin Diesel "Furious 7", Paul Walker "Furious 7", Ryan Reynolds "Woman in Gold", Arnold Schwarzenegger "Maggie", George Clooney "Tomorrowland", Shameik Moore "Dope", Nat Wolff "Paper Towns", Zac Efron "We Are Your Friends", David Oyelowo "Captive", Jake Gyllenhaal "Everest", Tom Hiddleston "Crimson Peak", Daniel Craig "Spectre", John Boyega "Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens", Edgar Ramirez "Point Break"

Commentary - Once again, with the comedy side being relatively weak this year, the majority of huge Oscar contenders on this side. I have substituted Tom Hanks for Matt Damon, who will likely be the front runner on the Comedy/Musical side, and that feels like it is right. Will Smith is getting tons of buzz for Concussion, but has to really land well to knock off these guys ahead of him. John Cusack, Tom Hardy, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Jake Gyllenhaal, Tobey Maguire, and some of the bigger blockbusters all are in the mix, as are foreign and veteran contenders like Michael Caine, Ian McKellen, Tom Hiddleston, Daniel Craig, Chris Hemsworth, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Geza Rohring are in as well. But once again, it feels foolish to go against those top five, at least for the moment.

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