Saturday, September 30, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Original Screenplay

Post-Festival Predictions
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjani "The Big Sick"
Anthony McCarten "Darkest Hour"
Greta Gerwig "Lady Bird"
Paul Thomas Anderson "Phantom Thread"
Martin McDonagh "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"

Other Contenders - Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor "The Shape of Water", Christopher Nolan "Dunkirk", Mark Boal "Detroit", Simon Beaufoy "Battle of the Sexes", Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor "Downsizing", Liz Hannah and Josh Singer "The Post", Matthew Aldrich, Adrian Molina and Lee Unkrich "Coco", Simon Baker and Chris Bergoch "The Florida Project", Jordan Peele "Get Out", Taylor Sheridan "Wind River", Darren Aronofsky "mother!", Jenny Bicks, Michael Ardnt, and Bill Condon "The Greatest Showman", Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymius "The Killing of the Sacred Deer", Joon-ho Bong and Jon Ronson "Okja", Edgar Wright "Baby Driver", Woody Allen "Wonder Wheel", Michael Haneke "Happy End", Steven Soderbergh "Logan Lucky"

Commentary - This is a really tough race, as quality contenders keep piling up. By the way, this is good news that this race is so tough. In the era of sequels, prequels, and unnecessary remakes, its nice to know there are still a few great original ideas left in Hollywood. So let's start with my current five. The Big Sick is just the kind of comedy that writers enjoy, and the fact that its based on the true story of its writers adds an extra layer of appeal. Out of the fall film festivals, three contenders have emerged in many categories: Darkest Hour, Three Billboard Outside Ebbing Missouri, and Lady Bird. These three have wowed critics, and all could end up with Best Picture nominations, or at least many across the categories. Plus, Oscar winner Martin McDonagh, Oscar nominee Anthony McCarten, and indie superstar Greta Gerwig, are all names that writers will recognize as awards worthy. Finally, Paul Thomas Anderson gets a writing nomination almost every film he releases, and Phantom Thread, with Daniel Day-Lewis at its lead, feels like it has Oscar written all over it. I know what your thinking: what about The Shape of Water? Genre pieces have trouble getting into non-technical categories, and even those that love the film think that some of its storylines are not the best. Del Toro has been nominated here before for genre work, and he is getting raves for his latest. But for now, I'll take my chances on leaving him out. I am also, begrudingly leaving out the perennial nominees of Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor. Downsizing still has a lot of potential, but its mixed reaction from the film festivals means it has an uphill climb. Battle of the Sexes is a crowd pleaser, that, as it has opened around the country, is getting rave reviews, and Simon Beaufoy is an Oscar winner. But this feels like a film that writers will not find as worthy as other branches. Steven Spielberg's latest is in the running, but screenplay doesn't always tag along. Detroit was a box-office dud, but its visceral and Mark Boal is an Oscar winner, so don't count him out. Coco could join other past Pixar favorites, The Florida Project is set to be an indie contender, Wind River features an Oscar-nominated screenwriter, The Greatest Showman could be more than its title, mother! could inspire writers who respect Aronofsky, and never count out previous nominees/winners Woody Allen, Michale Haneke, Steve Soderbergh, and the team of Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymius Filippou. Finally, Get Out is going to get a well-deserved Oscar push, and Jordan Peele is definitely one to watch for.

Monday, September 25, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions - Best Supporting Actor

Post-Festival Predictions
Armie Hammer "Call Me By Your Name"
Ben Mendelsohn "Darkest Hour"
Jason Mitchell "Mudbound"
Sam Rockwell "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"
Michael Stuhlbarg "Call Me By Your Name"

Other Contenders - Kevin Spacey "All the Money in the World", Mark Rylance "Dunkirk", Tom Hardy "Dunkirk", William Dafoe "The Florida Project", Harrison Ford "Blade Runner 2049", Garrett Hedlund "Mudbound", Patrick Stewart "Logan", Woody Harrelson "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri", Ray Romano "The Big Sick", Idris Elba "Molly's Game", John Hurt "Darkest Hour", Sterling K. Brown "Marshall", Josh Gad "Marshall", Christoph Waltz "Downsizing", LilRey Howery "Get Out", Tracey Letts "Ladybird", Richard Jenkins "The Shape of Water", Will Poulter "Detroit", Michael Shannon "The Shape of Water", Mark Hamill "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Laurence Fishburne "Last Flag Flying", Bob Odenkirk "The Post", Lucas Hedges "Lady Bird", Timothee Chamalet "Lady Bird", John Boyega "Detroit", John Boyega "Star Wars: The Last Ledi", Chris Pine "Wonder Woman"

Commentary - So I initially thought that they would campaign Armie Hammer for co-lead for Call Me By Your Name. But it looks like they are going to campaign him as co-supporting with Michael Stuhlbarg. Right now, I actually have them both making the cut. This film continues to garner support, the Moonlight win shows they are not afraid of gay storylines, and both are well-liked veteran actors with rave reviews. Now they could fall out as newer contenders emerge, but 9 months after it premiered at Sundance, both are still top of mind, which is good news after the onslaught of the fall fests. Jason Mitchell continues to hold on to his slot from Sundance as well. Mudbound has a lot of the potential with the potential with the Academy, but I will constantly reinforce that Netflix has to have the right strategy or it will get lost in the shuffle. Out of the fests, emerged Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which after its Toronto win has skyrocketed in people's Oscar predictions. Woody Harrelson is reliably great, but the raves have been saved for Sam Rockwell (and Frances McDormand). He is a veteran, has been excellent for years, and is way overdue for some awards recognition. Finally, after winning a surprise Emmy, and building a quality indie film cred over the last couple of years, Ben Mendelsohn's role as King George VI is earning raves out of the fests, and Darkest Hour is a huge Oscar contender. Beyond that, this category has a lot of question marks. Is Kevin Spacey just makeup or more in All in the Money in the World? Is Dunkirk going to inspire the acting branch, or just the tech ones? Is The Florida Project going to get enough attention for William Dafoe? Will genre contenders like Patrick Stewart, Harrison Ford, Mark Hammil, LilRey Howrey, Michael Shannon, John Boyega or Chris Pine breakthrough? What about Tracey Letts, Lucas Hedges, and Timothee Chamalet from the well-liked Lady Bird? Or Garret Hedlund joining his co-star? Or the guys from Marshall, Detroit, Christoph Waltz, Laurence Fishburne, Ray Romano, or Bob Odenkirk? In a few months, all of these questions will be answered, but for now, this race is a toss up.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

The Oscar Narrative: Post-Festival Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Post Festival Predictions
Mary J. Blige "Mudbound"
Allison Janney "I, Tonya"
Laurie Metcalf "Lady Bird"
Kristen Scott Thomas "Darkest Hour"
Michelle Williams "The Greatest Showman"

Other Contenders - Carrie Fisher "Star Wars: The Last Jedi", Octavia Spencer "The Shape of Water", Melissa Leo "Novitiate", Hong Chau "Downsizing", Kristen Wiig "Downsizing", Holly Hunter "The Big Sick", Michelle Pfeiffer "mother!", Lesley Manville "Phantom Thread", Margot Robbie "Goodbye Christopher Robin", Catherine Keener "Get Out", Sarah Paulson "The Post", Carrie Coon "The Post", Julianne Moore "Wonderstruck", Lois Smith "Marjorie Prime", Kate Hudson "Marshall", Juno Temple "Wonder Wheel", Julia Roberts "Wonder", Nicole Kidman "The Killing of the Secret Deer", Chloe Sevigny "Lean on Pete", Penelope Cruz "Murder on the Orient Express", Judi Dench "Murder on the Orient Express", Dafne Keen "Logan", Rosamund Pike "Hostiles", Rebecca Feguson "The Greatest Showman", Rebecca Ferguson "The Snowman", Tiffany Haddish "Girls Trip", Michelle Williams "Wonderstruck"

Commentary - I have moved Carrie Fisher out of the top five for a moment, but I still have hope that Oscar voters will finally recognize this role and this incredible woman. In the post-festival world, some previously unknown contenders have emerged. Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney are known more for their television and stage work, but both are beloved veteran actresses with impeccable resumes. Both have emerged out of the festivals with career-best work, and rave reviews. This category can favor veteran actors, and first-time nominees, so both have a great show if the buzz can be sustained. After Darkest Hour premiered, it was clear that this would be a hit with Oscar voters, so I moved Kristen Scott Thomas into this race. She is a previous nominee, and plays Clemmy Churchill, which is a role that has earned other actresses many accolades. The other two are still hanging from my original summer predictions. If Netflix pushes Mudbound right, it could be a big Oscar contender, including singer Mary J. Blige who earned raves out of Sundance. But Netflix just lost big at the Emmys, and I wonder if their release and marketing strategy will work with Oscar voters. Finally, I am holding out a spot for perennial nominee Michelle Williams. If The Greatest Showman is good enough, she could easily be the front runner. We have seen the narrative of "overdue" play well in recent years with wins from the likes of Viola Davis, Julianne Moore, and others. Williams definitely fits into that category. Beyond those five, there are plenty of contenders waiting in the wings. Octavia Spencer is yet again a scene-stealer in The Shape of Water, which earned raves out of Venice. Melissa Leo is always well-liked, Hon Chau and Kristen Wiig might overcome Downsizing's mixed reviews, Holly Hunter is the best contender from the first half of the year, and despite mixed reactions, mother! could earn Michelle Pfeiffer another Oscar nomination. Lesley Manville is an overdue veteran in a PTA film, Lois Smith is a legend, television stars Carrie Coon and Sarah Paulson could rise with The Post, Julia Roberts could return as the mom in Wonder, Kate Hudson could finally make an Oscar comeback, and Nicole Kidman could make it back to back nominations following her first Emmy win. Also, watch out for the blockbuster contenders Catherine Keener, Dafne Keen, Penelope Cruz, and the fantastic Tiffany Haddish.

Sunday, September 17, 2017

The 69th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards

I will update the winners live!:

Best Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Ann Dowd "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Reed Morano "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Bruce Miller "The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)"
Best Directing in a Comedy Series - Donald Glover "Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Comedy Series - Aziz Ansari and Lena Waithe "Master of None - Thanksgiving"
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Made for Television Movie - Black Mirror: San Junipero
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Jean-Marc Vallee "Big Little Lies"
Best Writing in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Charlie Brooker "Black Mirror: San Junipero"
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Don Roy King "Saturday Night Live - Host: Jimmy Fallon"
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Reality Competition Series - The Voice

Saturday, September 16, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Final List

Here we go! The final of the final list. There is no going back:

Best Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Comedy Series - Veep
Best Actor in a Drama Series - Sterling Brown "This is Us"
Best Actress in a Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Actor in a Comedy Series - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"
Best Actress in a Comedy Series - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series - John Lithgow "The Crown"
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series - Millie Bobby Brown "Stranger Things"
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Stranger Things - The Vanishing of Will Byers
Best Writing in a Drama Series - The Handmaid's Tale - Offred (Pilot)
Best Directing in a Drama Series - Atlanta - B.A.N."
Best Writing in a Drama Series - Master of None - Thanksgiving
Best TV Movie - Sherlock: The Lying Detective
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Riz Ahmed "The Night Of"
Best Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Nicole Kidman "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actor in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Alexander Skarsgard "Big Little Lies"
Best Supporting Actress in a TV Movie/Limited Series - Laura Dern "Big Little Lies"
Best Directing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Writing of a TV Movie/Limited Series - The Night of - Call of the Wild
Best Reality-Competition Series - RuPaul's Drag Race
Best Variety Talk Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Variety Sketch Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Directing in a Variety Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Writing in a Variety Series - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Series and Best Comedy Series

Best Drama Series
Will Win - Stranger Things

Could Win - The Handmaid's Tale, This is Us, or Westworld

Should Win - This is Us or Stranger Things

Commentary - This is still a tight race, and until the envelope is opened, we will all be waiting with anticipation. With 22 nominations, Westworld had every opportunity to continue HBO's streak. But only winning five Creative Arts Emmys is actually not great for a show with film quality technical achievements. Westworld should have been this year's Game of Thrones or Boardwalk Empire, and it fell way short. But it is still in this, because HBO is an Emmy juggernaut. The Handmaid's Tale is the newest of the contenders, and had some nice, some surprising wins last weekend. But in my mind this is a battle between two. This is Us is the one that stands out in this race. It is the only broadcast show, it is emotional, feel-good, and it is a massive phenomenon across all ages. It could win, despite missing out in directing and writing, and it would be a massive win for the veterans or traditionalists in this industry who still believe in joy and exuberance on television. But I think that after it over-performed last week, this is Stranger Things' to lose. It is nostalgic, emotional, beautifully crafted, and like This Is Us, can be categorized as a phenomenon. I think Netflix, with its clout, finally conquers one of these big races. Streaming finally eclipses its competition. And a brilliant, genre series that has enticed millions, will win a well-deserved Best Drama Series Emmy.

Best Comedy Series
Will Win - Veep

Could Win - Atlanta or Master of None

Should Win - black-ish

Commentary - Duh. Atlanta and Master of None are auteur brilliance. But neither are going to get enough votes to beat Veep. Let's face it. Emmy voters like their comedies funny. Master of None is, but Atlanta is really not. It's great. But it's not funny. Veep is the kind of show that wins this category a lot, and a third win in a row is going to happen. If anything else wins, I will eat crow, but I find it highly unlikely that anything can upset.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor and Actress in a Drama Series

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win - Sterling K. Brown "This is Us"

Could Win - Bob Odenkirk "Better Call Saul"

Should Win - Either Brown or Odenkirk

Commentary - Bob Odenkirk finally has a shot this year, but I think that Sterling K. Brown is a juggernaut in this race. He just won last year, he is beloved among these voters, and of the two shows, This is Us has a lot more support across the acting branches compared to Better Call Saul. I think it is Brown to the podium again. On a personal note, either win would make me happy, both are great actors in great roles.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Will Win - Elisabeth Moss "The Handmaid's Tale"

Could Win - Claire Foy "The Crown" or Evan Rachel Wood "Westworld"

Should Win - Moss

Commentary - A few months ago, this was Foy's to win, with Wood as the spoiler. But since the premiere of The Handmaid's Tale, Elisabeth Moss has shot to the top. The show did surprising well at the Creative Arts, including the win for Alexis Bledel, Moss is overdue after her Mad Men run, and this role really has the buzz compared to the other nominees.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Will Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"

Could Win - Jeffrey Tambor "Transparent" or Donald Glover "Atlanta"

Should Win - Anthony Anderson "black-ish"

Commentary -  So let's be honest, I have been playing this safe; and it would not be an Emmy season without at least one out of the box choice. So here it is: Anthony Anderson. Jeffrey Tambor could easily win a third, as Transparent remains popular with the actors, despite a Comedy Series snub. Zach Galifianakis could pull a Louie Anderson playing a clown, which has won several folks Emmys including Eric Stonestreet recently. Aziz Ansari is popular, William H. Macy is a beloved veteran, and Donald Glover, while an unusual choice considering Emmy history, would be a bold one for this industry. Most folks are predicting either Glover or Tambor, and it would not be surprising if either won. Honestly, any of these six winning would not shock me. This is why I am going out on a limb for this category. In my opinion, there are too many maybes, and that usually spells surprise at the Emmys. In this, the year of the anti-Trump, Anthony Anderson's Lemons episode is just the fodder that led McCarthy and Chappelle to guest acting Emmys. It will probably help McKinnon and Baldwin in these categories as well. Of course, some would argue that Tambor and Glover winning would also make political statements, but theirs would be a bit more subtle. I think that Anderson is overdue for some recognition for this role, I think the climate is right, and I think this category is ripe for an upset.

Monday, September 11, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Will Win - Julia Louis-Dreyfus "Veep"

Could Win - Allison Janney "Mom" or Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"

Should Win - Tracee Ellis Ross "black-ish"

Commentary - Will anyone de-throne the reigning queen? Probably at some point, but I don't think it is going to be this year. Until Julia Louis-Dreyfus loses, I am picking her to win. If anyone can pull off a miracle, I think that it is either Allison Janney or Tracee Ellis Ross. Janney is beloved among these voters, and has won for this role before. Ross would have been in a better position had black-ish earned more nominations, but never discount a pregnant story line. It has afforded many actresses Emmys over the years.

Sunday, September 10, 2017

2017 Creative Arts Emmy Awards: Part II

Once again, I will update the winners live!:

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series - Gerald McRaney "This is Us"
Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series - Alexis Bledel "The Handmaid's Tale"
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series - Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live"
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series - Melissa McCarthy "Saturday Night Live"
Best Casting in a Drama Series - Stranger Things
Best Casting in a Comedy Series - Veep
Best Casting in a Movie/Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Children's Program - Once Upon a Sesame Street Christmas
Best Short Form Comedy or Drama Series - Los Pollos Hermanos Employee Training
Best Actor in a Short Form Series - Kim Estes "Dicks"
Best Actress in a Short Form Series - Jane Lynch "Dropping the Soap"
Best Cinematography for a Multi-Camera Series - The Ranch
Best Cinematography for a Half-Hour Single Camera Series - Veep
Best Cinematography for a One-Hour Single Camera Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Cinematography for a Limited Series/Movie - The Night Of
Best Commercial - Calling JohnMalkovich.com - Squarespace
Best Costumes, Contemporary for Comedy, Drama or Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Costumes, Period/Fantasy for Comedy, Drama, or Limited Series - The Crown
Best Multi-Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - The Big Bang Theory
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Drama Series - Stranger Things: Chapter 1
Best Single Camera Picture Editing for a Comedy Series - Master of None
Best Single Camera Picture Editing in a Limited Series for Movie - The Night Of
Best Hairstyling in a Single Camera Series - Westworld
Best Hairstyling in a Movie or Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Creative Achievement in Interactive Media in a Scripted Series - Westworld
Best Original Interactive Program - The People's House - Inside The White House With Barack And Michelle Obama
Best Makeup for a Single-Camera Series - Westworld
Best Makeup Movie/Limited Series - Feud: Bette and Joan
Best Prosthetic Makeup - American Horror Story: Roanoke
Best Main Title Design - Stranger Things
Best Main Title Music Theme - Stranger Things
Best Music Composition for a Series - House of Cards
Best Music Composition for Movie/Limited Series - Fargo
Best Music Supervision - Big Little Lies
Best Production Design for a Contemporary/Fantasy Series - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Production Design for a Period One-Hour Series - The Crown
Best Production Design for a Half-Hour Narrative - Veep
Best Sound Editing for a Series - Stranger Things
Best Sound Editing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Sound Mixing for a One-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Westworld
Best Sound Mixing for a Half-Hour Comedy/Drama Series - Mozart in the Jungle
Best Sound Mixing for a Movie/Limited Series - The Night Of
Best Stunt Coordination for a Comedy or Variety Series - Shameless
Best Stunt Coordination for a Drama, Movie or Limited Series - Marvel's Luke Cage
Best Special Visual Effects - Westworld
Best Special Visual Effects in a Supporting Role - Gotham

Saturday, September 9, 2017

2017 Creative Arts Emmy Awards: Part I

I will be updating the winners live!:

Best Structured Reality Program - Shark Tank
Best Unstructured Reality Program - United Shades of American with W. Kamau Bell
Best Special Class Program - The 70th Annual Tony Awards
Best Reality Host - RuPaul Charles "RuPaul's Drag Race"
Best Variety Special - Carpool Karaoke Primetime Special 2017
Best Animated Program - Bob's Burgers
Best Short Form Animated Program - Adventure Time
Best Writing for a Variety Special - Full Frontal with Samantha Bee Presents Not the White House Correspondents Dinner
Best Directing for a Variety Special - Glenn Weiss "The Oscars"
Best Voiceover Performance - Seth MacFarlane "Family Guy"
Best Narrator - Meryl Streep "Five Came Back"
Best Documentary or Nonfiction Series - Planet Earth II
Best Documentary or Nonfiction Special - 13th
Exceptional Merit in Documentary Filmmaking - LA 92
Best Informational Series or Special - Leah Remini: Scientology and the Aftermath
Best Directing in a Nonfiction Program - Ezra Edelman "O.J.: Made in America"
Best Writing in a Nonfiction Program - Ava DuVernay and Spencer Averick "13th"
Best Short Form Reality or Nonfiction Series - Viceland at the Women's March
Best Short Form Variety Series - The Daily Show - Between the Scenes
Best Casting in a Reality Program - Born This Way
Best Choreography - (TIE) Mandy Moore "Dancing with the Stars" and Travis Wall "So You Think You Can Dance?"
Best Cinematography in a Nonfiction Program - Planet Earth II - Islands
Best Cinematography in a Reality Program - Born This Way
Best Costumes in a Variety, Nonfiction, or Reality Program - RuPaul's Drag Race
Best Picture Editing for a Nonfiction Program - O.J.: Made in America
Best Picture Editing for a Structured or Competition Reality Program - RuPaul's Drag Race
Best Picture Editing for an Unstructured Reality Program - Life Below Zero
Best Picture Editing for a Variety Program - Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Best Hairstyling in a Multi-Camera Series or Special - Hairspray Live!
Best Interactive Program - Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Best Creative Achievement in Interactive Unscripted - The Oscars: All Access
Best Innovation in an Interactive Program - Pearl
Best Lighting Design in a Variety Series - Dancing With the Stars
Best Lighting Design in a Variety Special - Super Bowl XI Halftime Show with Lady Gaga
Best Makeup for a Multi-Camera Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Motion Design - (TIE) 13th and Beyond Magic
Best Music Direction - Taking the Stage: African American Music and Stories that Changed America
Best Music and Lyrics - Common, Robert Glasper, and Karriem Riggins "13th - Letter to the Free"
Best Production Design in a Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Series - Saturday Night Live
Best Production Design in a Variety, Nonfiction or Reality Special - Hairspray Live!
Best Sound Editing in a Nonfiction Program - The Beatles: Eight Days a Week
Best Sound Mixing in a Nonfiction Program - The Beatles: Eight Days a Week
Best Sound Mixing in a Variety Program - (TIE) 59th Grammy Awards and 2017 Rock and Roll Hal of Fame Induction Ceremony
Best Technical Direction for a Movie, Limited Series or Special - Hairspray Live!
Best Technical Direction for a Series - Saturday Night Live

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Will Win - John Lithgow "The Crown"

Could Win - Ron Cephas Jones "This is Us", David Harbour "Stranger Things", or Jeffrey Wright "Westworld"

Should Win - Ron Cephas Jones "This is Us"

Commentary - John Lithgow has been ahead in this race for months now. He won the SAG, and lost the Golden Globe to an Emmy contender from last. So not much stands in his way right? This category has haunted me the last few years, because it has been forever since I actually got it right. It also has been a category ripe for upsets. Like when Jonathan Banks lost for the first season of Better Call Saul, or Ben Mendelsohn's shocking win last year over Banks and the Game of Thrones guys. That is why I am keeping three other potentials in my back pocket and might even switch one out as we enter the final stretch. First on the list is Ron Cephas Jones, who could be this year's Margo Martindale. He is one that was borderline in getting in, but now that he is, the popularity of his show, and the emotional performance he gives might equal Emmy gold. Jeffrey Wright is fantastic in Westworld, a previous Emmy winner, and could be a harbinger of the show's popularity if he wins. Finally, Stranger Things is on track to potentially win Drama Series, which could pull in David Harbour. I recently re-watched Stranger Things, and was surprised at how good he was. I loved his character, but a second viewing shows a lot of depth and could be the surprise of the night.

Thursday, September 7, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Will Win - Millie Bobbie Brown "Stranger Things"

Could Win - Chrissy Metz "This is Us"  or Thandie Newton "Westworld"

Should Win - Chrissy Metz "This is Us" or Millie Bobbie Brown "Stranger Things"

Commentary - If the popular ballot reflects the cultural zeitgeist then Millie Bobby Brown, who has been campaigning like its going out of style will win, plus at such a young age, her performance is astonishing. But in this wide-open race with all new contenders, this really is a three-way race, and child actors have never had the best luck with Emmy voters. Chrissy Metz is the breakout star of This is Us, which is clearly beloved by the actors, and Thandie Newton could be the big win for Westworld, which got loads of support, much of which was unexpected, across the categories. All of that being said, I am sticking with Brown. She is working the circuit, her character immediately became iconic, and Stranger Things is going to win at least one big award that night.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Alec Baldwin "Saturday Night Live"

Could Win - Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt" or Louie Anderson "Baskets"

Should Win - Tituss Burgess "Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt"

Commentary - Alec Baldwin was the face of the political and cultural zeitgeist this year, and even just revived his character right in the thick of Emmy voting on the summer edition of Weekend Update. But let's face it, in any other year, a nomination, let alone a win would be amazing. His character is one note (to be fair that is his material), he lacks depth, and he isn't a regular player on SNL. But the political happenings in the world are clearly weighing on Emmy voters, and it would be dumb to ignore that. But, if voters are looking elsewhere, watch out for last year's winner Louie Anderson, who has another great season, and my personal favorite Tituss Burgess. In the old episode system, his Lemonade-inspired episode would have equaled Emmy gold.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Will Win - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"

Could Win - Leslie Jones "Saturday Night Live", Judith Light "Transparent", or Anna Chlumsky "Veep"

Should Win - Kate McKinnon "Saturday Night Live"

Commentary - Unlike Alec Baldwin, Kate is not only at the forefront of the cultural zeitgeist thanks to her turn as Hillary Clinton, but has her always fantastic array of incredible characters as SNL's biggest star. If she can beat Allison Janney last year, she can easily win this year. But there are a few factors that could hurt her. First, she has two of her cast mates nominated against her, which could split votes, particularly Leslie Jones who is popular right now. Also, the actors may want to reward Judith Light who had an excellent season on Transparent. Finally, and this is just my theory. Two from Transparent and three for SNL could split the votes, and the great Anna Chlumsky might finally win for the ever-popular Veep.

Monday, September 4, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

Will Win - Gerald McRaney "This is Us"

Could Win - Ben Mendelsohn "Bloodline" or Hank Azaria "Ray Donovan"

Should Win - Gerald McRaney "This is Us"

Commentary - Hank Azaria won this category last year, and Ben Mendelsohn surprisingly won the supporting category for these same characters on this same show. Both of them are threats, and while it would disappoint me, it would not surprise me if either won. It would disappoint me because after forty years on television, Gerald McRaney has finally earned his first Emmy nomination. Not only is he so overdue its ridiculous, but he also is the heart and soul of This is Us' incredible pilot. If episodes mean anything, he is the best of the bunch, and he is the most deserving episodes be damned. I think and hope voters agree.

Sunday, September 3, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

Will Win - Alexis Bledel "The Handmaid's Tale"

Could Win - Laverne Cox "Orange is the New Black" or Ann Dowd "The Leftovers"

Should Win - Alison Wright "The Americans" or Alexis Bledel "The Handmaid's Tale"

Commentary - This is a tight three-way race. Laverne Cox's return to Orange is the New Black made for great television, but have voters moved on from that show? That's my bet, even though she and Uzo made it back in this year after missing out in previous seasons. Ann Dowd would be an interesting pick. She is a veteran actor, well-liked in this industry and managed to score two nominations this year. This would be a great place to reward her, because that Supporting Actress race is too stacked. But I think that Alexis Bledel is going to win her first Emmy. She had a great year with this role and the return of Gilmore Girls. Her performance on the show was haunting, and she is now a veteran television actress with a ton of great roles under her belt. I think all of that adds up to Emmy gold.

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Will Win - Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live"

Could Win -  Hugh Laurie "Veep" or Matthew Rhys "Girls"

Should Win -  Dave Chappelle "Saturday Night Live"

Commentary - I think that Dave Chappelle's return to sketch comedy will inspire votes and win him another Emmy. It doesn't hurt that his Netflix stand up specials came out during the last year. But he does have some competition. Most of the pundits are lining up behind Hugh Laurie, and it would be nice to finally see him win a long overdue Emmy, and he is the only nominee who doesn't have another guest star from the same show as competition. But he failed to make the cut on the supporting side, and I didn't find his outing on Veep this time around to be profoundly awards worthy, other than his appearance created a funny story line. I think that the one to watch for is Matthew Rhys. He is a double nominee this year, Peter Scolari's win last year proved that they still watch Girls, and his episode, which is essentially a two-hander was brilliant. But in the end, I am picking Chappelle.

Friday, September 1, 2017

2017 Emmy Predictions: Best Guest Comedy Actress in a Comedy Series

Will Win - Melissa McCarthy "Saturday Night Live"

Could Win - Carrie Fisher "Catastrophe" or Angela Bassett "Master of None"

Should Win - Carrie Fisher "Catastrophe"

Commentary - I was hoping that Emmy voters would be sentimental this year. We lost a princess, a general, an icon. But as we have learned time and time again, that voters in these categories tend to ignore sentiment. I still think, deep down, that Carrie Fisher's name is going to be called. But history, episodes, and buzz suggest something different. Melissa McCarthy joined the five-time club this year, with another great episode. While she has never won for her SNL appearances before, this time is different. This time she has a killer episode, and has the Sean Spicer impression over the course of the season that went completely viral. That combination I think is enough to earn McCarthy a second Emmy, and a long overdue recognition for her now iconic SNL appearances.